IgniteIt · Cannabis Capital ConferenceMIAMI 2027March 24–26 · The Diplomat Beach Resort, Hollywood FL
The story behind the story.
The $60 Ounce Paradox: Why Cannabis Profits Keep Shrinking
What happens when cannabis operators do everything right and still struggle to make money?
That’s the paradox at the heart of Michigan’s cannabis market: operational excellence doesn’t guarantee financial success.
This week, our Chief Economics Columnist, Rolando García Bernado, PhD, examines why becoming a better producer isn’t always enough to survive in a market where competition can erase the benefits of efficiency.
We’re also looking at the DEA’s first wave of federal dispensary registrations, earnings, exclusive conversations with cannabis executives, and Organigram’s agreed C$7.80-a-share deal for Aurora, which tops Curaleaf’s hostile bid.
And on Tuesday, Massachusetts voted on whether to dismantle one of America’s established adult-use cannabis markets.
With our Washington, D.C., Cannabis Capital & Policy Summit two weeks away, the industry’s financial and regulatory challenges are converging.
— Nico Rodriguez, Managing Editor
Nov. 18 in Washington, D.C.Cannabis Capital & Policy Summit, Grand Hyatt Washington — join us
One Number
900+
That’s how many medical cannabis dispensaries the DEA says it federally registered in its first wave, announced October 30.
The registrations span seven states, with manufacturers and distributors expected to follow.
But a November 29 supply-chain deadline and questions about dual medical/adult-use licenses introduce new compliance challenges.
Which operators will benefit first, and what does federal registration actually change for their businesses?
The Big Story
The $60 Ounce Paradox: When Growing More and Spending Less Still Means Earning Less
Michigan’s cannabis market has spent years adjusting to falling prices.
Now, the average retail flower price is hovering around $60 an ounce, and the pace of price declines has slowed considerably.
That sounds like good news.
But in his latest analysis, Rolando García finds that price stability isn’t translating into stronger profitability.
The numbers tell a different story
Over the latest twelve-month period, Michigan flower revenue declined 7.3% to approximately $1.28 billion, even as the amount sold increased slightly.
More recently, volumes have begun falling too.
Meanwhile, retailers ended September holding approximately 212,000 pounds of flower inventory, 43% more than a year earlier.
These figures suggest that the industry’s problems extend beyond falling prices.
What happens when costs fall but margins don’t recover?
Operators have invested heavily in production efficiency, expecting lower costs to protect profitability.
But lower production costs don’t necessarily translate into higher margins when competition continues pushing selling prices down.
Michigan’s new 24% wholesale excise tax adds another complication.
Rolando examines how the tax interacts with wholesale pricing, retail discounts, inventory accumulation, declining sales volumes, and cultivation economics, using Grown Rogue’s Michigan operations as a case study.
Want to know why lower costs aren’t restoring margins, and what a $60 ounce really means for profitability?
Read Rolando’s full analysisA question for the C-suite
Are lower production costs improving your margins, or is price competition absorbing the savings?
We want to hear from cannabis CEOs, CFOs, and senior executives about how these pressures are affecting their businesses. Reach our editorial team at nico@igniteit.com to contribute to our reporting or arrange an interview.
The Capital Test
Verano Reports Its Strongest Operating Cash Flow in Four Years
Verano reported third-quarter revenue of $212.4 million, up 5% year over year.
Operating cash flow nearly doubled year over year, marking its strongest quarterly performance in four years.
But adjusted EBITDA declined 5%, while capital expenditures are expected to increase as the company prepares for additional growth.
The question for investors: how sustainable is stronger cash generation when operating profitability remains under pressure?
Read: Verano Q3 Results — Cash Flow Hits Four-Year High →
Jushi Sees Virginia as Its Next Growth Opportunity
Jushi reported $70.5 million in quarterly revenue, up 7%, with wholesale sales reaching a company record of $9.7 million.
CEO Jim Cacioppo identified Virginia’s anticipated July 2027 adult-use launch as the company’s most significant near-term growth opportunity.
But declining gross margins, $215.6 million in scheduled-repayment debt, weaker operating cash flow, persistent net losses, and the capital requirements of expanding in Virginia complicate the growth equation.
The CEO Desk
Cheech & Chong: “Anything Left in the System Would Be Written Off”
What happens when a growing business faces a deadline that could make much of its inventory unsellable?
In an exclusive IgniteIt interview, Brandon Harshbarger, president of Cheech & Chong’s Global Holding Company, explains how the company is preparing for the December 11 federal hemp deadline while continuing production and protecting its retail relationships.
Meanwhile, Ted Whitney, the company’s chief beverage officer, warned that the consequences could extend beyond manufacturers to distributors, retailers, and employees.
How much financial exposure can a company absorb while waiting for Washington to act?
Read the exclusive: “Anything Left in the System Would Be Written Off” →
Standard Wellness: Why Ohio Still Has Room to Grow
Ohio’s cannabis market is expanding, but CEO Jared Maloof expects prices to decline as additional supply enters the market.
In an interview with A.J. Herrington, Maloof explains why Standard Wellness is prioritizing dispensary expansion over cultivation, with retail offering a faster return on investment.
Read: “You Will See Prices Come Down, But It Will Take Time” →
The SpreadWeek 8
Organigram Outbids Curaleaf for Aurora at C$7.80 a Share
Aurora has picked a buyer. On November 3, Organigram agreed to acquire Aurora Cannabis for about C$561 million, or C$7.80 per share, payable in cash, Organigram stock, or a mix, subject to proration.
That’s a 93% premium to Aurora’s unaffected August 10 price and, by the companies’ count, 21% above the implied value of Curaleaf’s offer as of November 2. Both boards approved the deal unanimously, and Aurora’s board is urging shareholders to reject Curaleaf.
British American Tobacco will invest £100 million in Organigram to fund the cash component and has agreed to vote for the deal and against competing proposals. Shareholder meetings are expected in December, with closing targeted for January 2027.
Curaleaf’s hostile bid, which expires December 4, is still on the table.
The question now: does Curaleaf raise, walk away, or try to block a deal Aurora’s board already backs?
Aurora / OrganigramAs of Nov. 3, 11:45 a.m. ET
9.1%
Aurora’s discountto Organigram’s bid
Aurora traded at C$7.09 against Organigram’s C$7.80. On Monday its gap to Curaleaf’s offer was 9.8%.
C$6.87Curaleaf’s bid today
(US$4.90)
(US$4.90)
14%Organigram’s edge
over Curaleaf
over Curaleaf
Jan. 2027Targeted
closing
closing
Why it matters: Aurora jumped about 20% on the news, but at C$7.09 it still trades 9.1% below Organigram’s price. That gap is the market’s discount for a deal that still needs shareholder, court and regulatory approval, and for whatever Curaleaf does next. Curaleaf’s own stock rose about 6%, lifting its offer to about C$6.87, still 12% short.
Read: Organigram to Acquire Aurora for C$561 Million, Outbidding Curaleaf →
Signal
Cresco Labs Moves Closer to a Potential U.S. Stock Exchange Listing
Cresco Labs shareholders approved three restructuring proposals with at least 94% support, clearing an internal hurdle toward a potential senior U.S. exchange listing.
The changes could simplify the company’s capital structure and improve access to institutional investors. But regulatory approvals and federal cannabis restrictions remain obstacles.
Is Cresco preparing for a breakthrough in U.S. capital markets, or a listing opportunity that may still be years away?
The Bottom Line
The Industry’s Next Test Is Political—and Financial
Cannabis operators have spent years trying to solve their problems through efficiency. But better operations cannot fix every problem created by market saturation, taxation, regulatory uncertainty, and restricted access to capital.
The midterm elections add another dimension. For investors, the stakes extend beyond election results.
Political decisions can change an entire industry’s economics, but regulatory progress alone cannot guarantee profitability.
That intersection of politics and capital is what we’ll be examining in Washington, D.C., on November 18.
Washington, D.C. — November 18
November 18 · Washington, D.C.
Two Weeks Until the Cannabis Capital & Policy Summit
The industry’s most consequential financial and regulatory questions are coming to Washington.
On November 18, IgniteIt will bring together cannabis executives, investors, policymakers, and financial professionals to examine the future of federal policy and capital allocation.
IgniteIt Cannabis Capital & Policy Summit
November 18, 2026 · Grand Hyatt Washington
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Cannabis Capital & Policy SummitNov 18 · Washington, D.C.